Mansions, Penthouses, Foreclosures & Fixer-Uppers: What SF Home-Buyers Bought in 2012

	Mansions, Penthouses, Foreclosures & Fixer-Uppers What San Francisco Home-Buyers Bought in 2012 Of all the homes purchased in San Francisco in 2012: How many had Golden Gate Bridge views? Or ocean views? How many were Victorian, Edwardian or Art Deco? How many had solar heating, elevators, pools or doorpersons? How many were bank sales, probate sales or short sales? What neighborhoods had the most sales over $5,000,000? For our annual special report, we data-mined all of 2012's MLS sales. We hope you find the results as interesting as we did. For updated information on home values and market conditions, use our link to "Market Dynamics Charts" at the bottom of this newsletter. All data herein is from sources deemed (at least somewhat) reliable -- i.e. the information input by listing agents regarding their own listings -- but may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. These charts do not include sales unreported to MLS. © Paragon Real Estate Group, January 2013  SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Online Resources | Property Search | SF Neighborhoods Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

Top 10% for 2012!

I'm don't like to toot my own horn often....

but I was so excited to see that I cracked into the top 10% of Realtors working in San Francisco I had to share it!

 2013-I'm shooting for top 5% !!!

December Update

October-November Statistics Reflect Strong Demand

October-November statistics undoubtedly reflect a market still dominated by a very high demand/ very low supply/ upward-pressure-on-prices dynamic.

As it typical at this time of year, the number of new listings is now markedly declining for the holidays -- this won't change until January. But though inventory continues to decline, buyer demand is still relatively ferocious, so the holiday slowdown may be less than in most years, just as this past summer was much stronger than the usual summer market.

If you adjust your screen-view to zoom 125%, the charts will be that much easier to decipher. On Windows machines, one can usually accomplish this by pressing the Control key and the + (plus) key simultaneously.

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Sales Price to List Price Percentage & Days on Market 

In November, the vast majority of San Francisco homes that sold, sold very quickly without any price reductions, at an average sales price 4% above the list price: That is a strong, hot market. Properties that had to go through price reductions took over 2 months longer to accept offers and sold at a significant discount to original list price. And even in a hot market, there are listings that do not sell at all, but expire or are withdrawn from the market: Many of these will ultimately be relisted at lower prices and eventually sold.

Median Sales Price

The median home sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic and what's important is the trend over the longer term -- monthly fluctuations are normal. Still, October-November saw a large increase over the relatively static median prices seen in the previous 6 months, which followed the big jump in early 2012. Usually, median prices will fall in December and January as the higher end market checks out for the holidays. Remember that sales prices reflect accepted offer activity in the 4 to 10 weeks prior.

Average Sales Price

The average price is simply the total dollar volume of sales divided by the number of sales. Like median price, it is a general statistic affected by a variety of factors and often fluctuates without great significance on a monthly basis. Among other factors, a decline in distressed home sales and/or an increase in high-end home sales, both of which are occurring now in SF, can have an outsized effect on average sales price. October saw a big jump in average sales price, and then it went up again in November. If the market acts in its typical manner, it will now fall in December and January, since the more affluent home market tends to withdraw for the holidays.

New Listings & the Inventory of Listings for Sale

After the inventory spike in September from the large influx of new listings, in October and November the number of new listings (the first chart below) and the total number of homes for sale (second chart below) are markedly declining and will almost certainly continue to do so until early 2013.

Buyer Demand Still Extremely Strong

The statistic used on this chart boils down the supply and demand dynamics into a single statistic. The percentage of listings accepting offers in October and November was probably about as high as it has ever been, close to twice the level of last year at this time. The decline seen in September was the result of a large influx of new listings hitting the market in mid-month.

New Home Construction Blasting Off

After crashing in 2008, developers are building again in a big way: over 4000 housing units are currently under construction in San Francisco, with many thousands more in the planning/permit phases. The lack of new homes on the market in the past few years has greatly impacted the supply side of the supply and demand equation. However, with the significant time lag between construction beginning on the larger projects and new condos arriving on market, the effects of this building surge will be a while before being felt.

Distressed-Home Market Disappearing in San Francisco

The city was never as hard hit as many other areas by distressed home sales, and now they are declining rapidly with the market recovery. The number of distressed home listings has declined by 80% since it peaked in November 2010. On this course, this segment will soon be only a negligible part of the SF market.

Months Supply of Inventory: Very Low

MSI is a measure of how long it would take to sell the current supply of listings at the existing rate of sales. In October and November, it was about as low as it has ever been. This would typically be interpreted as a strong "seller's market."

 

Except in the new-development chart, sales not reported to MLS are not included in this analysis. All figures are derived from sources deemed reliable, but should be considered approximate. The data may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. © Paragon Real Estate Group 

San Francisco Neighborhood Values

	San Francisco Neighborhood Values December 2012 The general market dynamics in November were little changed from October, so for a different perspective, below are long-term trends in average sales prices and average dollar-per-square-foot values in a variety of areas around the city. The last sales period assessed on the charts is made up of the three months September through November; the neighborhoods chosen were picked for their high volume of sales for the property type being tracked -- generally speaking, the greater the volume of sales, the more reliable the statistics. Pretty much all areas of San Francisco are now showing the same general trend line, a distinct and substantial recovery in values, though some neighborhoods began their recovery earlier in the year and have seen greater increases year to date. If you'd like to review the overall real estate market dynamics of San Francisco -- months supply of inventory, days on market, the number of new listings coming on market, percentage of listings accepting offers, and so on -- these can be found online here: SF December Market Report click for larger image Inner & Central Richmond House Values House sales here over the past three months had an average sales price of $1,186,000 at an average of $575 per square foot. Compared to 2011, those figures reflect a 13% to 14% increase. click for larger image Central & Outer Sunset & Parkside This table shows the changes in average sales price and dollar per square foot since 1995. One can also see that the average size of the houses sold can fluctuate (which will affect the average sales price). Distressed home sales are in rapid decline here, as they are throughout the city. The average dollar per square foot is up about 9% since 2011. Chart   click for larger image Bernal Heights House Values With an average sales price of $896,000 and a distressed home market that has basically disappeared, the Bernal Heights averages are up about 19% from the bottom of the market in 2011. And getting very close to the previous peak in values in 2007. Numbers Table click for larger image Noe & Eureka Valley House Values Average house sales price in this extremely hot market area was $1,665,000 in the past 3 months, which is actually higher than previous peak values in 2008. However, we'll have to wait to see what occurs over the longer trend since seasonality is one of the factors in prices. Average dollar per square foot is still somewhat below the 2008 peak. Chart click for larger image Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys: Condo Values Condo values in these highly sought after Upper-Market neighborhoods have followed a similar trajectory. The average condo sales price here over the past 3 months was $1,000,000. Numbers Table click for larger image Prestige Northern Neighborhoods The most expensive area for houses in San Francisco is in the northern band of old-prestige neighborhoods running from Telegraph Hill in the east to Sea Cliff in the west. As the luxury market has rebounded in a big way in 2012, we've seen increases in value in the 18% to 20% range since the market bottom in 2010. click for larger image South Beach - Yerba Buena Condo Values The greater South Beach area has seen a rebound in condo values in the 15% to 20% range. This area has some of the most expensive condos in the city, many featuring spectacular views. Numbers Table click for larger image Pacific Heights-Marina Condo Values At $1,235,000, the average condo sales price in the neighborhoods of Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and the Marina is now back up to the previous peak-value level of 2008. While the condos in South Beach have all been built in the last 15 years or so, condos in these older prestige neighborhoods are in buildings typically built 70 - 100 years ago. click for larger image Portola & Mission Terrace House Values The southern-most neighborhoods of San Francisco were those hit hardest by the distressed sale crisis. But the distressed property market is rapidly dwindling here and prices have been rebounding dramatically in the past 6 months. The recovery here started a step behind the recoveries in the most affluent neighborhoods, but is now accelerating rapidly. Statistics are generalities and should be considered approximations -- the longer term trend is more important than monthly fluctuations. Average sales price and average dollar per square foot trends may be affected by a wide variety of factors -- seasonality, buying trends, availability of financing, inventory -- and how they apply to any specific property is unknown. Property livable square footage, upon which average dollar per square foot is calculated, is often measured in different ways, taken from unreliable records or unreported altogether.All data herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision.© Paragon Real Estate Group SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Online Resources | Property Search | SF Neighborhoods Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

October 2012 Market Update

	Is the Ferocious SF Market Easing a Little? October 2012 San Francisco Market Update September brought a burst of new inventory that helped satisfy some of the fierce buyer demand for San Francisco homes. Anecdotally, word on the street is that the market may have calmed down a little after Labor Day: not every listing is selling immediately amid high numbers of competing offers -- though this may simply reflect the temporary increase in new listings, or sellers too hopeful in their asking prices. But it also appears that home price appreciation has been stabilizing or at least slowing in the last quarter after the big jump earlier in the year. It's still too early for conclusions: Since most statistics are like looking in a rearview mirror, what is happening today will only become clear in coming months. Even if the market has eased a little, it is still very strong and very competitive by any historical measure. Below are 2 updated, mapped analyses of median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values. Almost all the current values reflect a significant jump from 2011: for the city overall, the increase has been in the 10 to 12% range, but it can vary from 4% to 18% by neighborhood and property type. Median Sales Prices After the big jump early in the year, median price appreciation for both house and condos appear to have stabilized or slowed - at least for the city as a whole. (Market conditions vary widely by neighborhood.) The median sales price for non-distressed SF condos now slightly exceeds the median price in 2007, the last peak of the market, while that of SF houses is only 5% below 2007. We have similar charts going back 15 to 30 years available on our website. Inventory September had the highest number of new listings of any month in the past year, though well below previous Septembers: 760 new home listings in September 2012 vs. 888 in 2011 and 1138 in 2010. This significantly, if temporarily, expanded the choice of homes available to buyers. But now, in October, the number of new listings is dwindling again and inventory is still drastically low by any historical measure. Overall, in the third quarter, there were 1100 fewer listings than in the same period last year, but the number of sales increased by 21%. 2-Bedroom Condo Median Prices In the 5 areas shown, condo values jumped across the board, though the most dramatic increase from the bottom of the market has been in South Beach/Yerba Buena -- where in the last 2 quarters, the median price surged ahead of that for Pacific and Presidio Heights. Noe and Eureka Valleys and surrounding neighborhoods, SoMa and Hayes Valley/NoPa have also seen large increases. If you'd like data on a neighborhood not listed, please let us know. Average Dollar per Square Foot House Values Though pretty much all SF neighborhoods are seeing increases in dollar per square foot values for houses, the more affluent districts 5 (Noe/Eureka/Cole Valleys) and 7 (Pacific Heights-Marina) have seen some of the largest jumps. In the last 2 quarters, District 5 hit a point matching the peak of the market in 2007. If you'd like data on a neighborhood not listed, please let us know. Luxury Home Sales Comparing the 3rd Quarter 2012 with 3rd Quarter 2011, MLS listings of San Francisco homes of $1,500,000 and above increased by 23% and sales soared by 54%. This map shows where those sales occurred: 18 in the Sea Cliff/ Lake Street/ Richmond district; 26 in the Pacific Heights/ Marina district; 21 in Russian/ Nob/ Telegraph Hills; 19 in the greater SoMa/South Beach area; 53 in the Noe/ Eureka/ Cole Valleys district; 10 in the St. Francis Wood/ Forest Hill district; 2 in Potrero Hill and 3 in Bernal Heights. The highest prices are still generally achieved in the band of very affluent neighborhoods running across the northern boundary of the city, though growth in the number of luxury home sales is strongest in the central and northeastern areas. Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) Still bumping along at the lowest levels in memory. MSI reflects the amount of time it would take to sell the current inventory of homes for sale at the existing rate of sales. Lower MSI means higher demand as compared to supply. Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers Houses, condos and TICs all hit historic highs in the 54% to 60% range earlier in the year, but have now fallen back a bit. In the third quarter, TICs saw a rather large decrease, but their percentage is still much higher than in the last four calendar years. The percentages for houses and condos are still extraordinarily high. This statistic is one of the clearest measures of supply and demand. Average Days on Market For those listings that did accept offers in September, the average days on market was the lowest in a long while. Many new listings, especially those considered most appealing and well-priced, are accepting offers within 7 to 10 days of coming on market. Would you like an updated analysis of your property's current value? Need a referral to a contractor, architect, designer or other professional resource? Want to know how a remodeling project may affect the value of your home? Considering the purchase of investment real estate or leasing a commercial space? Have a friend, co-worker or relative needing help with home buying or selling? Thinking of renting out your house or condo? Need help finding an agent in another part of the state or country? Considering a second home in the wine country, Tahoe or Jackson Hole? Have a local charity to nominate for a Paragon Community Fund donation? If so, please just let us know. Statistics are generalities and should be considered approximations. How they apply to any specific property is unknown. All data herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision.© Paragon Real Estate Group, October 2012 SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | SF Neighborhoods Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

September 2012 Market Report

	Summer's Unflagging Demand Fuels Higher SF Home Prices San Francisco Real Estate Market: September 2012 Update Typically, the real estate market slows down during the summer months - a period often called the summer doldrums -- but that certainly did not occur this year in San Francisco: unflagging buyer demand continued through August. The market recovery that began in some SF neighborhoods late last year has now spread throughout the city. Bay Area, state and national home markets are also showing clear, if still early signs of turnaround. ******************************San Francisco House Values Rising It's rare that the 3 main statistical measurements of home value line up so perfectly, but comparing this summer's house sales to last summer's shows 12% increases across the board. Which doesn't mean uniform appreciation for SF homes: changes in value vary by property and neighborhood. This analysis and the one following are for non-distressed sales in the city's 8 northern and central districts, which generally run north of the Sloat Blvd/ Highway 280 line: The 2 southern districts were hit much harder by foreclosures and though they too are recovering quickly, mixing in their data distorts the results. During this 3-month period, house sales volume in the 8 districts was up 5% in units and 18% in dollar volume -- and would be up much higher if more inventory had been available. Average days on market fell from 52 days to 39 days year over year. San Francisco Condo Values Rising The condo statistics don't line up quite as neatly, but nearly so: they're up from 9.4% to almost 12.5%, with the average being about 11%, which is very close to the 12% increase seen in houses. (Remember: these statistics are generalities regarding the sale of many hundreds of relatively unique homes.) Closed sales follow the time when new listings hit the market and offers are negotiated by 4 to 10 weeks, so these charts reflect the market from April through July. Non-distressed condo sales volume in the 8 northern/central city districts during this 3-month period is up 41% in units and 54% in dollar volume from last summer, and average days on market dropped from 69 days to 47 days. Most Listings Selling At or Over Asking Price San Francisco is currently seeing remarkable percentages of homes selling above and sometimes far above the asking price: 64% of house sales and 45% of condo sales in August closed at above list price, and solid percentages sold at 10% higher or more. This is perhaps as good a snapshot as any of the ferocious heat of buyer demand right now. (Sales that were within a quarter percent of 100% were considered "At List Price.") Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers No summer slowdown is showing up in this important metric of supply and demand. Price Reductions, Sales Price Percentages, Time on Market Over two thirds of SF listings are selling quickly at an average of almost 4% over the asking price. Those listings that go through one or more price reductions take much longer to sell (over 2 ½ months longer on average) to close at a significant discount to original price. For every listing selling after a price reduction, another listing expires or is withdrawn without selling, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. The keys to getting the best price for your home: price it right to begin with; prepare it to show at its absolute best; comprehensively market it to buyers and agents; negotiate offers aggressively. And it doesn't hurt to take advantage of a low inventory/high demand market. Distressed House Sales Declining Distressed house sales - bank-owned and short sales - are clustered in the city's two southern districts, running from Bayview to Oceanview. However, these listings are rapidly declining as the market turns around and values increase: distressed house sales have dropped from 20% of sales in 2011 to 12% in August 2012. This becomes a virtuous circle of market recovery: higher values mean fewer distressed listings; fewer distressed listings lessen their (significant) negative effect on neighborhood home values. Distressed Condo Sales Sinking The distressed condo segment of the SF market is dwindling rapidly both as a percentage of total sales (from 20% in 2011 to 14% YTD, and 10% in August 2012), and even more dramatically, as a percentage of listings for sale (down to only 4% as of August 31). The greatest number of distressed condo sales has been in the greater SoMa/ South Beach area, where so many of the new, big developments were built over the past 10-15 years, but the impact of these sales is shrinking very quickly everywhere in the city. Unit Sales Up Condo and 2-4 unit building unit sales are up over 20% from last year this time - this time comparing a six-month period of each year. House sales -- and indeed sales of all types -- would certainly be up by a much greater percentage if there were simply more listings for buyers to purchase. Inventory Way Down There's no ambiguity in this chart: An inadequate number of new listings and extremely high demand have kept the inventory of listings available to choose from on any given day lower than at any time in recent memory. It's not unusual for September to bring a large burst of new listings to fuel the autumn sales season: in this chart, you can see the big jump in September 2010 and the smaller surge in September 2011. Buyers and their agents are certainly praying for a surge in inventory to alleviate the intense competition for available homes. Days on Market Continue to Decline The trend is clear: listings are selling much more quickly. Though 37 days as an average is very, very low -- nationally, there's excitement that the figure just fell to 69 days -- many new listings in the city are accepting offers within 7-10 days of coming on market. Values by Neighborhood, Property Type & Bedroom Count We just completed our detailed semi-annual survey of SF home values. This is one of seven charts: the complete report can be found by clicking on the Market Dynamics Charts link in the footer below and then selecting Neighborhood Values from the sections listed on the upper left of the webpage. Statistics are generalities and should be considered approximations. How they apply to any specific property is unknown. All data herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision.© Paragon Real Estate Group, September 2012 SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | SF Demographics Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

What Costs How Much Where

	What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco San Francisco Home Values By Neighborhood, Property Type & Bedroom Count MLS Sales February 1, 2012 - mid-August 2012 The charts below apply to non-distressed home sales with at least 1 car parking. Distressed home sales -- bank-owned property and short sales -- typically sell at a discount, but as the market recovers the number of such listings is rapidly declining. If a price is followed by a "k" it references thousands of dollars; if followed by an "m", it signifies millions; "N/A" means that there was not enough data to generate a reliable statistic. Where abnormal "outlier" sales were identified that significantly distorted the statistics, these were deleted from the calculations. Within each chart, the neighborhoods are sorted by median sales price, highest to lowest. Very generally speaking and varying widely by city neighborhood, thus far in 2012, San Francisco home prices have increased by 5% to 15% over 2011 values. ********** ********** More information here Trends in Dollar per Square Foot Values for Non-Distressed Houses in Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods2012 Numbers reflect 2nd Quarter Sales OnlyTrends in Median Sales Prices for Non-Distressed 2-Bedroom Condos in Selected SF Neighborhoods2012 Numbers reflect 2nd Quarter Sales Only The MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. If there were 3 sales, at $1, $2 and $10, the median price would be $2. If there were 4 sales at $2, $2, $5 and $10, the median would be $3.50. Median sales price may be affected by seasonal trends, and by changes in inventory or buying trends, as well as by changes in value. AVERAGE DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT is based upon the home's interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; rooms and apartments built without permit; decks, patios or yards. These figures are typically derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable, measured in different ways, or unreported altogether: thus consider square footage and $/sq.ft. figures to be very general approximations. Generally speaking, about 60-80% of listings report square footage, and dollar per square foot statistics are based solely on those listings. All things being equal, a house will have a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (because of land value), a condo will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC's will be higher than a multi-unit building's (quality of use). All things being equal, a smaller home will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a larger one. The highest dollar per square foot values in San Francisco are typically found in upper floor condos in prestige buildings with utterly spectacular views. The AVERAGE SIZE of homes of the same bedroom count may vary widely by neighborhood: for example, the average size of a 4-bedroom house in Pacific Heights is much larger than one in Noe Valley; and the average of a Marina 2-bedroom condo is larger than one in South Beach. Besides the affluence factor, the era and style of construction often play large roles in these disparities. Some neighborhoods are well known for having additional ROOMS BUILT WITHOUT PERMIT, such as the classic 1940's Sunset house with "bedrooms" and baths built out behind the garage. These additions often add value, but being unpermitted are not reflected in $/sq.ft. figures. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in general statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, views, amenities, outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so forth. Thus, how these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown. These statistics are generalities, subject to fluctuations due to a variety of reasons (besides changes in value). Average figures in particular may be distorted by a few sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially where the sample size is small. Generally speaking, the fewer the sales, the less reliable the statistics. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in these analyses.All information herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. © Paragon Real Estate Group, August 2012 SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Online Resources | Property Search Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

June Market Update

	Dramatic Spike in San Francisco Home Values June 2012 Market Update Drama, drama everywhere.  There so much going on in the San Francisco homes market right now it’s a little hard to decide what to highlight in this month’s newsletter.  The supply and demand situation has created the most ferociously competitive environment for buyers in years.  There’s huge buyer demand and an extremely low inventory of homes available to be purchase.  We saw this start to build when the market turned in 2011.  It made a quantum jump early this spring.  Now we’re seeing big increases in sales prices.  Certain neighborhoods blazed the way for this recovery and they’re showing the most dramatic changes in values, but pretty much all the city’s neighborhoods are now experiencing similar supply and demand dynamics. Any data you view on recent closed sales will reflect the market heat from 4-10 weeks prior when the new listings first came on the market and offer were accepted and negotiated.  The April/May spike in values reflects the market in February, March, and early April.  If anything, the market has gotten even hotter since then.  In the past, the market has usually slowed down during the summer months.  We’ll have to wait and see if that happens this year or whether the current trend will continue. Explanations for the statistics referenced can be found on the Paragon website: Statistical Definitions -------------------------------------------------Short-Term Trends in SF Home Values Median and average sales prices are calculated in different ways, and each has its advantages and weaknesses as a statistical measure. Any statistic is a generalized, market-condition snapshot taken from a specific angle on the data. Ideally, different statistics should all point to the same conclusion regarding market trends, which is what we're seeing below. Long-Term Trends in San Francisco Home Values By some measures, property values, at least in April and May - which is a very short statistical period of time - are rapidly approaching peak values in 2007/early 2008. In the next couple quarters, it will be seen if this is simply a dramatic fluctuation or an initial indication of a sea change in market prices. Based upon what we are seeing in the statistics and on the street, we lean toward the second view. Home Value Trends by San Francisco Neighborhood Some neighborhoods, such as the greater Noe Valley area, the greater South Beach/SoMa area and the older, prestige northern neighborhoods such as Pacific Heights and Russian Hill, have been at the leading edge of the market recovery. Other areas, such as many neighborhoods in the southern districts of the city, are a step behind and price increases have not yet shown up as dramatically in the statistics. But we believe they will very soon: the markets there have become very hot as well. The Distressed Home Market in San Francisco Distressed home listings in San Francisco are rapidly declining by units and as a percentage of the overall market, and as home values and home equity increase, this trend will continue. Since distressed home sales have a negative effect on values, this dwindling will continue to strengthen the market. The New-Homes Market in San Francisco Another important dynamic is the crash in new-home construction 5 years ago and the resultant reduction in new homes (mostly new condos) now available to purchase. As these units are highly sought after, this adds to the crunch in supply and the upward pressure on prices. As the city's economy and housing market has recovered, builders are jumping back into the market in a big way, but there is a significant lag time between the decision to build and the acquiring of permits and having new condos ready to sell to eager buyers. Supply & Demand Statistics Units for sale and Months Supply of Inventory: Probably at their lowest in decades. Percentage of San Francisco Home Listings Accepting Offers In many ways, this is the single clearest statistic regarding what's going on in the market. Average days on market have also plunged in May (not shown on this chart). Mortgage Interest Rates Interest rates just hit another historic low. Someone buying the same priced home now as in 2006-2007 would have a monthly mortgage payment approximately 25% lower. The Rent vs. Buy equation in the city has changed dramatically as interest rates have dropped and apartment rents have soared. Median Home Prices Around the Bay Area This is a companion to our recent San Francisco home-values-by-neighborhood maps. SF Mapped Values These statistics are based upon sales reported to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) by June 4th. May data reported after that date will change the numbers but probably not significantly. We are always reluctant to make too much of statistical fluctuations over relatively short periods of time, but as virtually every statistic points to the same conclusion, we believe they indicate a genuine, substantiated trend in the market. Of course, the eruption of a new financial or political crisis could always significantly disrupt the market. All data herein is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. June 2012 © Paragon Real Estate Group SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | Calculators Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

May Market Update

	San Francisco Real Estate What You Get for How Much Where The exploding buyer demand and extraordinarily low inventory that have been the case in San Francisco since 2012 began are now showing up in broadly higher sales prices. Monthly statistics for a wide, varied market area (such as the city) should always be treated warily: they can be affected by a variety of factors, and longer-term trends are much more reliable. Still, April's median sales price for SF houses and condos jumped about 10% above March's and is now the highest in 2 years. The ferociousness of the current supply and demand dynamic is encapsulated in the large percentage of home listings across the city now receiving multiple offers almost immediately upon coming on market; some new listings have been generating literally dozens of bids. If sustained, there is no way such market conditions won't result in higher home values. Sales prices reflect the market 4 to 8 weeks in the past, i.e. that time at which the accepted offers were actually negotiated, thus April's median sales price mostly reflects the market in February and March. Below are 3 mapped analyses of recent SF home sales through the 1st quarter of 2012 by median price and average dollar per square foot. These provide an overview of comparative prices and values in the different areas of the city. They will not reflect any market-value changes showing up in April. Following the maps is a sampling of specific 2012 San Francisco home sales. Below is a random sampling of 2012 city home sales closing before April 30th. The short descriptions can only give a general sense of the location, appeal, quality, condition and amenities of each property, and the sales listed are not necessarily representative of typical values for the neighborhood and property type. With real estate, the devil is always in the details. $10,000,000 & Above $11,000,000. Pacific Heights on Broadway: 1904, 7 bedroom, 6 bath, Gold Coast mansion; 9744 square feet, $1129/sq.ft., spectacular views from almost every room, 120-seat home theater, 4 car parking. Sold off market. $10,000,000. Presidio Heights on Washington: 1910, 8 BR, 7 BA, 4-story mansion; GG bridge, bay or Presidio views from almost every room, but "home is in need of work", 3 car pkg. Original asking price of $15,000,000; 97 days on market. $4,000,000 to $7,000,000 $7,000,000. Alamo Square on Fulton: 1904, 13 BR, 14 BA "Archbishop's Mansion"; 20,000 sq.ft., $350/sq.ft., park and city views, 6-10 car parking, elevator. Original list price of $7,950,000; 164 days on market. $4,980,000. Russian Hill on Green: 1928, 3 BR, 4.5 BA, full-floor co-op; almost 360 degree views, doorman building, 2 car pkg, $3200/month HOA dues. Original list price of $5,750,000; 98 days on market. $4,795,000. Cow Hollow on Union: 5 BR, 4 BA house; 3962 sq.ft., $1210/sq.ft., large lot, pent-level with views, large south yard, 2 car pkg. Sold for 2% over asking price; 15 days on market. $4,650,000. Telegraph Hill on Montgomery: 5-level, 2-condo building (4400 sq.ft. main residence; 1021 sq.ft. lower residence); $858/sq.ft., stunning views, 3 terraces, 3 pkg. Original list price of $7,000,000; 258 days on market. $2,000,000 to $4,000,000 $3,800,000. Yerba Buena on Minna: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, St. Regis condo; 2573 sq.ft., $1477/sq.ft., spectacular views, doorman building, valet pkg, leased pkg, $2569/month HOA dues. 4% below asking price; 101 days on market. $3,400,000. Noe Valley on Fair Oaks: 1908, 5 BR, 4.5 BA Edwardian; 4126 sq.ft., $824/sq.ft., decks, garden, double lot, 2 car pkg. 100% of asking price; 8 days on market. $3,200,000. St. Francis Wood on Santa Clara: 1929, 4 BR, 5.5 BA, Spanish-Mediterranean house; 5707 sq.ft., $562/sq.ft., double lot, heated pool, 2 pkg. 8% below original price; 73 days on market. $2,995,000. Dolores Heights on Cumberland cul de sac: 1916, 3 BR, 2.5 BA, Arts & Crafts Edwardian house; 2500 sq.ft., $1198/sq.ft., "breathtaking city and bay views", 1 pkg. 100% of asking price; 10 days on market. $2,875,000: Cole Valley on Cole: 1905, 12-room, 4 BR, 3.5 BA Edwardian home; 2850 sq.ft., $1009/sq.ft., 2 pkg. 1% over asking price; 25 days on market. $2,850,000: Marina on Magnolia: year 2000, 5 BR, 4.5 BA, contemporary house; 3400 sq.ft., $838/sq.ft., water views, studio, roof deck, 2 pkg. 5% below original price. $2,725,000. Lake Street on 25th Avenue: 1909, Thomas Churchill 4 BR, 3.5 BA Edwardian; 3700 sq.ft., $736/sq.ft., overlooking GG Bridge & Marin Headlands, plans for garage. 2% below asking price; 39 days on market. $2,250,000. South Beach: 2 BR, 2 BA, corner penthouse at The Infinity; 42nd floor, panoramic views, doorman building, private deck, 1 pkg. 10% below asking price; 13 days on market.   $1,500,000 to $2,000,000 $1,865,000. Potrero Hill on 18th: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, renovated Victorian house; 2600 sq.ft., $717/sq.ft., bay and city views, 1 pkg. $1,749,000. West Portal on 15th: 2009, 4 BR, 3.5 BA house; 3321 sq.ft., $527/sq.ft., high Greenpoint rating, 2 car pkg w/charging station. 100% of asking; 6 days on market. $1,739,000. Noe Valley on Day: 1909, 8-room, 3 BR, 2.5 BA Victorian home; 2218 sq.ft. $784/sq.ft., 2 car parking. $1,693,000. Laurel Heights on Spruce: 5 BR, 3.5 BA, Historic Registry Victorian; 2662 sq.ft., $636/sq.ft., 2 pkg. Off-market sale. $1,649,000. Jackson Square: 2006, 3 BR, 2.5 BA full-floor condo; 2040 sq.ft., $808/sq.ft., private terrace, 1 pkg, city views, $898/month HOA dues. 4% below asking price; 159 days on market. $1,630,000. Golden Gate Heights on Ortega: 1974, 4 BR, 3.5 BA, contemporary house; 2900 sq.ft., $562/sq.ft., ocean-city-bridge views, 2 pkg. 4% below asking price; 147 days on market. $1,625,000. Russian Hill on Larkin: 1914, 5-room, 2 BR, 2.5 BA condo in 13 unit building; 1273 sq.ft., $1277/sq.ft., panoramic GG Bridge views, 1 pkg, $394/month HOA dues. $1,600,000. Inner Richmond on 10th: 3-level, 11-room, 4 BR, 3.5 BA house; 2577 sq.ft., $621/sq.ft., "massive contemporary remodel", 1 pkg. 7% above asking price. $1,600,000. NoPa on Shrader: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, top-floor Edwardian condo; 3169 sq.ft., $505/sq.ft., roof garden, 2 pkg. 100% of asking price; 24 days on market. $1,595,000. Eureka Valley on Grandview: 1946, 3-story, 3 BR, 2.5 BA house; 2315 sq.ft., $689/sq.ft., bay and downtown views, 2 pkg. 11% above asking price; 17 days on market. $1,565,000. Inner Mission on Hampshire: 2001, 2-story, 3 BR, 3BA, townhouse condo; 2870 sq.ft., $545/sq.ft., fantastic views, 2 terraces. 13% below original price; 65 days on market. $1,529,000. Ashbury Heights on Clifford Terrace: 3 BR, 2.5 BA house; 2135 sq.ft., $716/sq.ft., deck, fish pond, 2 car pkg. $1,500,000. Glen Park on Surrey: 2007, 3-level, 3 BR, 3 BA, contemporary house; 2521 sq.ft., $595/sq.ft., view deck, 1 pkg. 100% of asking; 40 days on market. $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 $1,496,000. Corona Heights on Saturn: 1957, 4 BR, 3 BA, contemporary house; 1900 sq.ft., $787/sq.ft., city lights view, view deck, 2 pkg. $1,465,000. Forest Hill on Taraval: detached, 4 BR, 2.5 BA, traditional house; 2426 sq.ft., $604/sq.ft., 1 pkg. Closed at 6% above asking price. $1,450,000. Nob Hill on Jones: 1929, 7-room, 2 BR, 2 BA condo in Clay-Jones; 18th floor, panoramic bay and city views, 1475 sq.ft., $983/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $1142/month HOA dues. 100% of asking price; 16 days on market. $1,365,000. Presidio Heights on Sacramento: 1912, 6-room, lower-level, 3 BR, 1.5 BA, Arts & Crafts condo; 1617 sq.ft., $844/sq.ft., deeded garden, 1+ pkg. 2% below asking price; 55 days on market. $1,348,000. Eureka Valley on Hancock: 1924, 3 BR, 2 BA, Marina-style house; 2000 sq.ft., $674/sq.ft., 2 pkg. 3% below asking price; 15 days on market. $1,340,000. Financial District on Market: 2 BR, 2 BA condo in Ritz Carlton; 23rd floor, 1660 sq.ft., $807/sq.ft., Union Square & bay views, 1 pkg, $2621/month HOA dues. 1% below asking price. $1,310,000. Inner Sunset on 8th: 1922, 4 BR, 2.5 BA, Edwardian house; 2790 sq.ft., $470/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 2% over asking price; 17 days on market. $1,300,000. Anza Vista on Fortuna: 1948, 7-room, 2 BR, 2 BA house; 2337 sq.ft., $556/sq.ft., downtown views, deck, 2 pkg. 4% over asking price; 19 days on market. $1,262,000. Potrero Hill on Carolina: 2002, North-slope, 3 BR, 3 BA contemporary home; 1872 sq.ft., $674/sq.ft., stunning downtown views, 1 pkg. $1,125,000. Central Richmond on 30th: 1927, 8-room, 4 BR, 2.5 BA, Marina-style house; 2500 sq.ft., $446/sq.ft., 2 pkg. 6% below original price; 55 days on market. $1,120,000. South Beach at The Towers: year 2000, 2 BR, 2 BA condo; 1167 sq.ft., $960/sq.ft., bay and marina views, huge view terrace, $814/month HOA dues. 2% over asking price; 40 days on market. $1,040,000. St. Francis Wood on Yerba Buena: 1924, 3 BR, 1.5 BA house; 1612 sq.ft., $645/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 5% below asking price; 118 days on market. $1,030,000. Haight Ashbury on Masonic: top floor, 5-room, 2 BR, 2 BA, Victorian condo; "historically significant", 1596 sq.ft., $645/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 8% over asking price; 5 days on market. $1,020,000. Midtown Terrace on Midcrest: 1996, 6-room, 3 BR, 3.5 BA house; 1908 sq.ft., $535/sq.ft., 180 degree bay and ocean views, 2 decks, 1 pkg. 2% over asking price; 34 days on market. $1,006,000. Lone Mountain on Anza: 3 BR, 2 BA, detached, Spanish-Med house; 2028 sq.ft., $523/sq.ft., trust sale, 1 pkg. 12% below original list price; 206 days on market. $1,000,000. Noe Valley on Day: 3 BR, 2 BA, 6-room, Victorian house; 1286 sq.ft. with expansion potential, $778/sq.ft., 2 pkg. 26% over asking price; 28 days on market. $1,000,000. Marina on Beach: top floor, 1929, 5-room, 2 BR, 2 BA, Spanish-Med condo; 1515 sq.ft., $660/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $650/month HOA dues.   $750,000 to $999,000 $985,000. Cow Hollow on Greenwich: 3 BR, 2 BA, TIC townhouse; 1650 sq.ft., $597/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $465/month HOA dues. 100% of asking; 45 days on market. $940,000. Duboce Triangle on Henry: 1982, top-floor, 2 BR, 2 BA condo; 1391 sq.ft., $676/sq.ft., south deck, 1 pkg, $390/month HOA dues. 18% over asking price; 30 days on market. $905,000. Hayes Valley on Buchanan: top-floor, 3 BR, 1 BA, Edwardian condo; 1578 sq.ft., $574/sq.ft., deck, 1 pkg. 3% over asking price; 41 days on market. $873,000. Pacific Heights on Clay: 1962, top-floor, 3 BR, 2 BA condo in 12 unit bldg; 1300 sq.ft., $672/sq.ft., shared laundry, 1 pkg. 9% over asking price; 15 days on market. $850,000. Bernal Heights on Coleridge: 1947, 3 BR, 2 BA house; 1358 sq.ft., $626/sq.ft., view deck, 1 pkg. 11% over asking price; 27 days on market. $845,000. Miraloma Park on Rockdale: 3 BR, 3 BA, Spanish-Med house; 1770 sq.ft., $477/sq.ft., trust sale, 2 decks, $39,000 pest report, 2 pkg. 11% below asking price; 99 days on market. $845,000. Diamond Heights on Gold Mine: 1966, 6-room, 3 BR, 2.5 BA house; 1964 sq.ft., $430/sq.ft., sweeping views, tenant occupied, 2 pkg. 108 days on market. $844,000. Mission Dolores on 17th: 1993, 6-room, 1st floor, 3 BR, 2 BA, contemporary condo; 1242 sq.ft., $680/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $300/month HOA dues. 6% over asking price; 42 days on market. $820,000. Lake Street on 25th: 1930, 5-room, 2 BR, 2 BA condo; 1300 sq.ft., $631/sq.ft., panoramic views, 1 pkg, $460/month HOA dues. $806,000. Lake Shore on Berkshire: 1953, 6-room, split-level, 3 BR, 2 BA house; 1686 sq.ft., $478/sq.ft., trust sale, 2 pkg. 3% over asking price; 33 days on market. $799,000. Central Sunset on 35th: 1932, 2 BR, 2 BA, Spanish-Med Rousseau house; 1740 sq.ft., $459/sq.ft., tenant occupied, 2 pkg. 100% of asking price. $785,000. SoMa on Natoma: 1906, top-floor, 3 BR, 2 BA, Victorian condo; 1525 sq.ft., $515/sq.ft., 2 pkg, $200/month HOA dues. 1% over asking price; 35 days on market. $780,000. South Beach on Beale: 2 BR, 2 BA condo at the BridgeView; bank sale, 1074 sq.ft., $726/sq.ft., outstanding views, 24-hour doorman, 1 pkg. 4% over asking price; 12 days on market. $775,000. Noe Valley on Douglass: 1910, 2 BR, 1 BA, Victorian house; 1050 sq.ft., $738/sq.ft., expansion potential, deck, 2 pkg. 11% below original asking price; 171 days on market. $765,000. North Beach on Francisco: 2001, 2-level, 2 BR, 2 BA, loft-style condo in the Malt House; 1033 sq.ft., $741/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $590/month HOA dues. 2% over asking price; 36 days on market. $757,000. Parkside on 22nd: 1939, tunnel-entrance, 7-room, 3 BR, 2 BA house; 1509 sq.ft., $502/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 8% over asking price; 27 days on market. $755,000. Outer Richmond on 37th: 1924, 6-room, 2 BR, 2 BA house; 1750 sq.ft., $431/sq.ft., 2 pkg. 2% over asking; 29 days on market. $500,000 to $749,000 $700,000. Outer Richmond on 38th: 1925, 2 BR, 1 BA house; in-law apartment, 1450 sq.ft., $483/sq.ft., 1 pkg. $660,000. Potrero Hill on Kansas: 2007, 4-room, 2 BR, 2 BA condo in 138 unit complex; 1077 sq.ft., $613/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 2% below asking price; 121 days on market. $643,500. Inner Sunset on 17th: 1926, 6-room, 2 BR, 1 BA, Marina-style condo; 1550 sq.ft., $415/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $358/month HOA dues. $620,000. Bernal Heights on Peralta: 1940, 6-room, 3 BR, 2 BA house; bonus room and bath, 1200 sq.ft., $517/sq.ft., 1 pkg. $610,000. Pacific Heights on Scott: top-floor, 4-room, 1 BR, 1 BA, Edwardian condo; 748 sq.ft., $816/sq.ft., no pkg, $250/month HOA dues. 11% over asking price; 21 days on market. $610,000. Merced Heights on Garfield: 2 BR, 1 BA house; in-law apartment, 1287 sq.ft., $474/sq.ft., ocean view, 1 pkg. $605,000. Nob Hill on Broadway: 1982, 5-room, 2 BR, 2 BA condo; bank sale, 1097 sq.ft., $552/sq.ft., patio, 1 pkg, $631/month HOA dues. 5% over asking price. $600,000. Sunnyside on Mangels: 1961, 8-room, 4 BR, 3 BA house; short sale, 1520 sq.ft., $395/sq.ft., 2 pkg. $600,000. Outer Parkside on 48th: 1954, 6-room, 3 BR, 2 BA house; 1195 sq.ft., $502/sq.ft., ocean view, big deck, 1 pkg. 100% of asking price. $595,000. Inner Richmond on 4th: 1907, 2 BR, 1 BA condo; bank sale, bonus rooms, 1314 sq.ft., $453/sq.ft., 1 pkg. $580,000. SoMa on 8th: 1997, 1 BR, 2 BA, live-work loft/condo; probate sale, 1369 sq.ft., $424/sq.ft., 1 pkg. $588,000. Outer Sunset on 43rd: 1954, 3 BR, 1.5 BA condo; 1235 Sq.ft., $476/sq.ft., ocean view, 2 pkg. 18% over asking price; 23 days on market. $560,000. Lower Pacific Heights on Bush: 2 BR, 2 BA TIC; Smart Car included in sale, 1100 sq.ft., $509/sq.ft., $406/month HOA dues. $536,000. Buena Vista Park on BV: 1986, 3-room, 1 BR, 1 BA condo; stunning downtown views, 734 sq.ft., $730/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $578 HOA dues. $510,000. Crocker Amazon on Chicago: 1925, 5-room, 2 BR, 1 BA house; 1100 sq.ft., $464/sq.ft., large lot, 2 pkg. 3% over asking price; 30 days on market. $510,000. Outer Mission on Alemany: 1940, 2 BR, 1 BA house; bonus room and bath, 1200 sq.ft., $425/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 3% over asking price; 33 days on market. Up to $499,000 $488,000. South Beach on Berry: 2007, 1 BR, 1 BA condo at Park Terrace; short sale, 803 sq.ft., $608/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $468/month HOA dues. $485,000. Excelsior on Dublin: 1944, 6-room, 2 BR, 2 BA house; trust sale, 1295 sq.ft., $375/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 22% over asking price. $460,000. Bernal Heights on Nevada: 2 BR, 2 BA house; "contractor's special", bonus rooms, 1164 sq.ft., $395/sq.ft., 1 pkg. $450,000. Ingleside Heights on Ramsell: 1961, 3 BR, 2 BA house; short sale, 1319 sq.ft., $341/sq.ft., 2 pkg. $410,000. Oceanview on Montana: 1955, 5-room, 2 BR, 1 BA house; trust sale, 1050 sq.ft., $390/sq.ft., full basement, 2 pkg. 3% over asking price. $380,000. Marina on Jefferson: 1991, 2-room condo; bank sale, 558 sq.ft., $681/sq.ft., no parking, $316/month HOA dues. $380,000. Outer Richmond on La Playa: 1982, top-floor, 2 BR, 2 BA condo; 1043 sq.ft., $364/sq.ft., ocean views, 1 pkg. 9% over asking price; 29 days on market. $348,000. Diamond Heights on Red Rock: 1972, 3-room, 1 BR, 1 BA condo in 396 unit complex; 830 sq.ft., $420/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $437/month HOA dues. $329,000. Downtown on O'Farrell: 1930, 1 BR, 1 BA, Art Deco condo in The Hamilton; 945 sq.ft., $348/sq.ft., large bonus room, no parking, $723/month HOA dues. 11% below original asking price; 246 days on market. $295,000. Bayview on Innes: 1927, 6-room, 2 BR, 1 BA house; bank sale, 1413 sq.ft., $209/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 16% over asking price; 24 days on market. BR = bedrooms, BA = baths, days on market = the days between going on market and being designated "pending sale, contingencies removed". Homes that sold at or over asking price will typically have accepted offers within 7 to 14 days of going on market (commonly after receiving multiple offers), even if it may have taken additional weeks to remove contingencies of sale and be designated "pending". Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It may be and often is affected by other factors besides changes in value, such as changes in buying patterns or available inventory. Square footage is based on "livable space", which may be measured in different ways, but should not include decks, patios, yards, garages, unfinished basements and attics, or rooms built without permit ("bonus rooms" and "in-law apartments"). Square footage figures are often unreported or unreliable. All median and average statistics should be considered approximations, and it is unknown how they apply to any specific property. All data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. May 2012 Copyright Paragon Real Estate Group   SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Online Resources | Property Search | SF Demographics Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

SOMA/South Beach Market Update

	San Francisco Real Estate Trends for the South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Mission Bay & Yerba Buena Condo Market A Market Overview by the Paragon Real Estate Group More condos sell in the South of Market (SoMa)-South Beach-Yerba Buena-Mission Bay neighborhoods than anyplace else in the city. Of course, this is where by far the greatest number of new condos have been built since the 1990's. The market here has been heating up very rapidly, especially as the number of brand new condos on the market has been rapidly declining. This is also one of the areas where high-tech buyers are concentrating in the city. Though in this analysis, the four neighborhoods are generally grouped together, there can be significant differences in market dynamics and values between them. The only way to value a particular property is by performing a specific comparative market analysis based on its location, quality and amenities. **************************************Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers This statistic is an excellent snapshot of supply and demand. In the 1st quarter of 2012 the percentage of listings accepting offers (going under contract) was at its highest point in memory, reflecting very strong buyer demand vs. a limited supply of condos for sale. Condos for Sale The inventory of condos listed for sale through MLS is far below that of previous years and is not currently adequate to meet market demand. Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) MSI is the lowest it has been here in years, if not ever. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale. MSI readings this low -- especially below 3 months -- would typically be considered indicative of a strong "Seller's Market," i.e. not enough inventory to satisfy buyer demand. Sales Price to List Price Percentage, Days on Market, Price Reductions & Expired Listings The market is divided into 3 groups: 1) those condos which are well priced, show well and are comprehensively marketed, which sell relatively quickly at very close to the asking price, 2) those condos that go through one or more price reductions, take much longer to sell, and close at significant discounts to the original list price, and 3) those that don't sell at all, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. The Number of Listings Accepting Offers The total number of condo listings in Greater SoMa accepting offers is at its highest in over 3 years. Average Days on Market (DOM) for Non-Distress Sales Average DOM - the time between going on market and accepting an offer -- for non-distress condo sales is at its lowest in over 2 years. (This chart shows the last 13 months.) DOM for distress sales is typically significantly longer than for non-distress sales. Distress Condo Listings & Sales in the Greater SoMa Area Because so many large developments were built here in the last 15 years, this area has more distress condo sales (bank-owned property sales and short sales) than any other area of the city. However, the number of distress listings and sales has been declining, and most of the distress condo sales are clustered generally in the lower price ranges (see median price chart) and often in specific troubled buildings. Median Condo Sales Prices For most of the past 3 years, the median price of non-distress condos in the greater South of Market area of San Francisco has generally been oscillating between $625,000 and $700,000, while the median price for distress condos (bank-owned and short sales) has been substantially lower. Median prices of condos of varied location, size, views and quality will naturally fluctuate up and down without being particularly meaningful as pertaining to changes in value -- until the trend is consistent over the long term, minimally 3 to 4 quarters. Note that values can fluctuate dramatically, by specific location and specific building, within the 4 neighborhoods covered by this analysis. Median Sales Price Trends for 2-Bedroom Condos in Selected SF Neighborhoods A comparison of median price trends for 2BR condos in 5 of the city's neighborhoods. Average Dollar per Square Foot The New-Development Condo Market The vast majority of new-condo construction over the past 15 years has been in this greater area. The 2008 financial crisis caused new condo construction to crash in SF, which has led to large declines in new-condo listings and sales. Even though new construction plans appear to be now recovering in a relatively big way, this large reduction in existing new-condo inventory has significant ramifications for the supply and demand dynamic, and is a major factor in the heating up of the resale market. Sales by Price Range The greatest number of condo sales in these neighborhoods is in the $500,000 to $600,000 price range, however large numbers sell for far less (often times, distress sales) and many sell for far more. Indeed, some of the most expensive condos in the city, usually with staggering views and selling at dollar per square foot figures of $1000 and more, are found here. One condo in this area sold for $28 million last year. Longer-Term Trends for South Beach & SoMa The two following charts track average sales price and average dollar per square foot for non-distress condo sales by year since 1995, specifically for the South Beach and SoMa neighborhoods. Remember that average sales price is different from median sales price (which is used more often), but is just another way to look at long-term market trends. Distress sales (bank and short sales) were excluded from this analysis to provide an apples to apples comparison over time. Condo Sales $1,000,000 & Above ****************************** MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends. AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low. DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market. MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a "Seller's market", 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a "Buyer's market." DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home's interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks -- though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings. Median and average statistics are generalities subject to fluctuation due to a variety of reasons (besides changes in value): how they apply to any specific property is unknown. Averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when sample size is small. Sales not reported to MLS - such as many new-development condo sales -- are not included in this analysis (except in the specific chart on the SF new-development condo market). All figures should be considered approximate and are derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and not warranted. We are happy to provide or direct you to the original data upon which each chart is based. Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | Neighborhood Values | SF Demographics | What Buyers Bought Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

April 2012 Market Report

	Markets Can Turn With A Vengeance April 2012 San Francisco Update Several times in the past 30 years, the San Francisco real estate market has turned up or down very quickly and very dramatically: in the mid-eighties - up; early nineties - down; 1996 - up (and up and up, except for the dotcom hiccup); 2008 - way down; and now we believe another dramatic turn up has begun. By virtually every statistical measure of supply and demand, the city's market is experiencing major acceleration. Multiple-offer, competitive-bidding situations have hit levels not seen in many years and this is putting strong upward pressure on values in many of San Francisco's neighborhoods. The more affluent areas of the city - never much impacted by distress sales and now highly sought after by buyers - are leading the recovery. We know this runs contrary to the Case-Shiller Index, but the city, and especially its higher-end segments, make up only a very small part of the Case-Shiller 5-county SF Metro Area, and currently the Index does not reflect the city's market conditions and trends. A new war or financial crisis might derail the upturn, but absent such an event, and considering the city's improving economic conditions, we expect it will continue. -------------------------------------------------Two thirds of the city's home sales now average a sales price over the original list price. The competition between motivated buyers has heated up enormously. SF is now seeing the highest percentages of listings accepting offers in memory. For all property types. TICs have made a particularly dramatic turnaround recently, probably due to the severe shortage of new and resale condos available to purchase. The lowest ratio of expired and withdrawn listings - i.e. homes that do not sell, typically due to being perceived as overpriced - in many years. The lowest Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) readings in memory. For all property types. An incredibly low level of properties available to purchase. Right now, properties are actually selling more quickly than new listings are coming on market. Average Days on Market have crashed for all property types. A substantial percentage of listings is selling virtually immediately upon coming on market (i.e. within 7-10 days). We're starting to see upward movement in values in some San Francisco neighborhoods, especially those most popular with affluent high-tech buyers. Remember that market demand may take a while to translate into changes in values, and that different city neighborhoods are recovering at different speeds. San Francisco's market is definitely recovering much more quickly than most other areas of the Bay Area, state and country. The luxury home market is also seeing significant increases in demand and upward pressure on values. The number of distress home listings is markedly decreasing (and, in any case, they are generally clustered in the less affluent neighborhoods and in the lower price ranges). If the recovery continues, fewer and fewer homes will require transfer as distress sales. In case you missed it, here is a chart from our recent analysis of San Francisco demographics. To see the entire report, click on the "SF Demographics" link in the footer. All data herein is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors, and is subject to revision.April 2012 © Paragon Real Estate Group

March 2012 Market Report

	2012: An Accelerating San Francisco Market March 2012 Update "If I knew where I was going to live for the next five years or 10 years, I'd buy a home and I'd finance it with a 30-year mortgage. It's a terrific deal --- If I had a way of buying a couple hundred thousand single-family homes --- I would load up on them. And I would take mortgages out on them at very low rates --- [With] a 30-year mortgage --- it's a leveraged way of owning a very cheap asset now. That's as attractive an investment as you can make." Warren Buffet, February 27th CNBC Interview on Investing   You might remember that in my January newsletter I mentioned that the SF real estate market seemed to have turned a corner in 2011 and that conditions were similar to what they had been in 1996, when the market started accelerating after a 4-5 year down market in the early nineties.  There were big improvements last year in consumer confidence, buyer demand, and general economic conditions.  We also saw a surge in high-tech employment and wealth (which looks like it will continue to rise), sky-rocketing rents, climbing stock market values and the lowest interest rates in history. We’re further into the new year now and everything we’ve seen so far in the market is reinforcing the conclusions we came to in January.  The measurements of supply and demand - the driving force behind any changes in prices - that we’re tracking now show a market that is rapidly accelerating.  Even setting aside the statistics and numbers, this is what we’re seeing on the street, in our day-to-day business of representing clients buying and selling real estate. San Francisco has often marched to the beat of its own drum compared with other markets in the Bay Area, California, and the Nation in general, and that’s exactly what’s happening now:  our market is recovering sooner and faster than most (though we are seeing signs of recovery in other markets too).  Of course, the City itself is full of neighborhood micro-markets, which have been showing recovery at different speeds -- or in some cases, not yet recovering.  When it comes to real estate, generalizations can only get you so far.  Ultimately, it boils down to a specific home in a specific location with its specific conditions and circumstances, and the demand from buyers for such a property. All data herein is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors, and is subject to revision.March 2012 © Paragon Real Estate Group click for larger image Months' Supply of Inventory (MSI) MSI is a measure of how long it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions: the lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to supply. For every property type in San Francisco, MSI is either at its lowest reading ever, or very, very close to it. Any reading below 3-4 months of inventory is typically considered a "Sellers' market." All SF property types now register as strong Sellers' markets, though conditions do vary by neighborhood. Nationally, MSI has also fallen, but it is still over 6 months of inventory. click for larger image Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers (by MONTH) This is another excellent measure of demand vs. supply - the higher the percentage, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes available to purchase. This measure increased dramatically in 2011 when compared to previous years, but since 2012, it has skyrocketed to levels we can't remember ever seeing. The competition for reasonably priced, general-appeal homes is ferocious in many areas of the city, and multiple offer situations are more common now than they've been in at least 5 years. click for larger image Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers (by WEEK) Typically, in the first 6 -8 weeks of the new year, the market just starts to wake up. Not in 2012. This chart looks at the market WEEK by WEEK for the six months ending February 26th. In mid-January, demand exploded. And remember that the percentages for the last 4 months of 2011 were already much higher than in previous years. Many properties are selling immediately upon coming on market and the number of new listings is not coming close to meeting demand. This creates upward pressure on prices. click for larger image SF Homes for Sale On any given day, the inventory of listings available to purchase is dramatically below the levels of previous years, typically by 30%-50%. And yet the number of highly qualified and motivated buyers entering the market is increasing. Year over year, February's closed unit sales were up about 14%, but on a hugely reduced inventory of available listings. If inventory was nearer normal levels, the number of sales would be much higher. In the meantime, the market has become very competitive in many parts in the city. click for larger image Case-Shiller High-Tier Home Price Index This Index ended 2011 pretty much where it began. The Index tracks house sales in a 5-county SF "Metro Area", of which the city's sales are only a small percentage. Even as our market has begun a recovery, the Index is pulled down by the other counties' market conditions (not as positive as the city's). The C-S High-Tier Price Index applies to the city best, but it still doesn't apply all that well: for the 5-county Metro Area, the top third tier of sales in December 2011 started at $573,000; the city's top third last year started at $860,000. (And it's much higher in the city's central and northern districts.) The higher the price segment, the less affected it is by distress sales; such sales cluster in the less affluent segments and significantly depress market conditions there. The 2012 SF market may be in a similar place to that of 1996, i.e. starting to accelerate after 4-5 years of decline or doldrums. click for larger image Noe Valley-Castro-Cole Valley Market Realtor District 5, in the center of the city, is one of the areas where the market has changed most dramatically - to some extent, due to being highly sought after by high-tech employees working both inside and outside the city. Though median sales price is an imperfect signifier of changes in values, and can fluctuate for a number of reasons, we believe in this case it generally reflects market reality. Huge buyer demand and extremely low inventory in District 5 are pushing prices higher: the median sales prices for both houses and condos have risen to their highest points since 2008. For our complete report: SF District 5 Analysis click for larger image SoMa-South Beach-Yerba Buena-Mission Bay The greater South of Market area is another one of the city's markets that is noticeably heating up - again, to a large extent, due to surging high-tech employment and wealth. The supply of brand new condos for sale has dwindled since 2008, helping to create the biggest inventory crunch since this area started to be developed in the mid-nineties. This is exerting upward pressure on prices. For our complete report: SoMa-South Beach Market Analysis click for larger image Average Days on Market (DOM) This statistic is easily distorted by a relatively small number of sales that sell after being on the market for a long time, and large fluctuations are not unusual. It certainly doesn't reflect the average days on market for well-priced, well-prepared, well-marketed, general-appeal homes, which often accept offers within 1 or 2 weeks of going on market. Still, for what it's worth, average DOM fell to its lowest point in years in February. click for larger image SF Statistics by Neighborhood We recently completed our semi-annual review of non-distress home sales by neighborhood; property type; bedroom count; low, high and median price; average size and average dollar per square foot. (Mixing distress and non-distress sales creates misleading statistics for both categories, so we separate them out.) This is just one of eight charts. For our complete report: San Francisco Neighborhood Values click for larger image What SF Buyers Bought in 2011 If you didn't see our data-mining analysis of 2011 home sales in San Francisco, here is one panel of 14. You can find the full report, full of surprising details, here: What Buyers Bought in 2011 click for larger image Mortgage Interest Rates The impact that lower interest rates have on the ongoing cost of home ownership, especially when doing a rent vs. buy analysis in a city of soaring rents, can't be overstated. Here, once again, is a graph of just how dramatic the changes have been in recent years. Courtesy of Julian Hebron of RPM Mortgage. SF Open Homes | Property Search No one knows San Francisco real estate better than we do. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

What Buyers Bought in San Francisco - 2011 Recap

	From Penthouses to Fixer-Uppers What Did San Francisco Home-Buyers Purchase in 2011? Of all the homes bought and sold in San Francisco in 2011: How many had Golden Gate, Bay Bridge, downtown or ocean views? How many were Victorian, Edwardian, Art Deco, Spanish Mediterranean or brand spanking new? How many had elevators or pools, wine cellars, doorpersons or in-law apartments? How many were probate sales, bank sales or short sales? And what were the biggest sales in the Sunset, Noe Valley, SoMa and Pacific Heights? We data-mined all of 2011's MLS sales to answer these questions and more. We hope you find the details as interesting as we did. All data herein is from sources deemed (at least somewhat) reliable - i.e. the information input by listing agents regarding their own listings -- but may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. These charts do not include sales unreported to MLS.  SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | Neighborhood Values Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

District 5 (Noe, Castro, Haight) Update - February 2012

	San Francisco Residential Market Trends in Realtor District 5: Noe/ Castro/ Haight A statistical market overview by the Paragon Real Estate Group for Noe Valley, Eureka Valley & the Castro, Cole Valley, Mission Dolores, Haight Ashbury, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Glen Park, Twin Peaks & the Duboce Triangle Below are a variety of charts detailing market conditions and trends in the neighborhoods of San Francisco's central Realtor District 5. District 5 is one of the more homogeneous districts in San Francisco in terms of property values, but still any analysis of an area with so many properties of different type, location, condition and quality can only be a very general overview. District 5 soared in value between 1996 and 2008 and was one of the last districts to peak in value before the financial markets meltdown in September 2008. Values then fell about 20% very quickly and then stabilized in 2009 and 2010. With the surge in high-tech buyers in 2011, many of whom wish to be close to highways to the peninsula, activity in this district has picked up significantly. It's a very hot market for appealing, well-priced homes, and we are seeing a good number selling very quickly in multiple offer situations. This dynamic is beginning to exert upward pressure on prices. Generally speaking, short-term fluctuations up and down -- especially of median price and dollar per square foot -- are relatively meaningless unless continuing for an extended period of time. In real estate, the longer term trends, seen across a wide variety of statistical measurements, are the meaningful ones. ****************************** Sales Prices to List Prices, Days on Market, Price Reductions & Expired Listings Most of the homes that sell in District 5 sell quickly for very close (or even a little over) asking price. Those listings that go through one or more price reductions take much longer to sell and sell at a large discount to original list price. And even in a strong market, not everything sells -- a fair percentage of listings expire or are withdrawn without selling, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. Well-priced, well-prepared, comprehensively marketed homes in this area are often accepting offers within 1 or 2 weeks of going on market. Median House & Condo Sales Prices in District 5 For the past 2 plus years, the median price of houses in District 5 has generally been oscillating between $1,200,000 & $1,350,000 and for condos between $750,000 and $825,000. Median prices of homes of varied location, size and quality will naturally fluctuate without being particularly meaningful as pertaining to changes in value -- until the trend up or down is consistent over the long term (minimally 3 to 4 quarters). In the 4th Quarter of 2011, the median house price hit its highest point since 2008. Note that in the 3rd quarter the median price for condos in District 5 suddenly fell 12%, which seems odd considering what was said earlier about District 5 being a hot market. But this is a perfect example of why median prices cannot be relied upon as perfect indicators of changes in value -- especially in short-term fluctuations -- because it just so happened that the average size of condos sold in District 5 in the 3rd quarter also dropped 12% from the 2nd quarter. Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers An excellent statistical snapshot of supply and demand. These two charts, the first by quarter through 2011, and then the second by WEEK for the 6 months ending 2/5/12 reflect the surging buyer demand vs. a limited supply of homes for sale. The percentage was very high in 2011 and then blasted off with start of 2012. By Quarter through End of 2011 BY Week for Six Months Ending February 5, 2012 -- Incredible Surge since the Beginning of 2012 Average Dollar per Square Foot for Houses & Condos Both houses and condos in District 5 have generally been oscillating up and down within a a relatively narrow $50 band of average dollar per square foot value since the beginning of 2009. Homes for Sale on the Last Day of the Month The very, very low inventory of homes available to purchase through MLS is clearly illustrated in this chart. Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) MSI is at an extremely low level of inventory for houses and condos, a reading that would typically be considered indicative of a strong "Seller's Market." Indeed anything under 3-4 months is usually considered a Seller's Market. Longer-Term Trends The following sample analyses delineate average sales price (which is different from median sales price) and average dollar per square foot by year since 1995. When neighborhoods are grouped together below, it is because they generally share similar market values in particular property types. Sometimes it's valuable to step back for a longer term view of market trends. Annual statistics, because of the much greater amount of data, are typically much more reliable than (fluctuating) quarterly or monthly stats. Noe & Eureka Valleys: Higher-End House Sales, Values over Time This is just a snapshot of a particular segment of the market in two of the biggest neighborhoods of District 5: Noe Valley and Eureka Valley. It should be noted that many houses do also sell for higher prices here than in price parameters set in the chart below. ****************************** MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends. AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low. DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market. MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a "Seller's market", 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a "Buyer's market." DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home's interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks -- though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings. District 5: includes the following neighborhoods: Noe Valley, Eureka Valley (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights Median and average statistics are generalities subject to fluctuation due to a variety of reasons (besides changes in value): how they apply to any specific property is unknown. Averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when sample size is small. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in this analysis. All figures should be considered approximate and are derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and not warranted. We are happy to provide or direct you to the original data upon which each chart is based.  SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | Neighborhood Values Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

SOMA/South Beach Market Update -February 2012

	San Francisco Real Estate Trends for the South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Mission Bay & Yerba Buena Condo Market A Market Overview by the Paragon Real Estate Group More condos sell in the South of Market (SoMa)-South Beach-Yerba Buena-Mission Bay neighborhoods than anyplace else in the city. Of course, this is where by far the greatest number of new condos have been built since the 1990's. The market here has been heating up rapidly, especially as the number of brand new condos on the market has been rapidly declining. ************************************** Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers This statistic is a good snapshot of supply and demand. The last 3 quarters have seen this percentage at or close to its highest point in 3 years, reflecting strong buyer demand vs. a limited supply of condos for sale. The percentage of listings accepting offers in the past quarter is very high when compared to the 3rd quarters of previous years (1st chart). Then with the beginning of 2012, demand just blasted off to another level (2nd chart). This chart tracks the percentage of listings accepting offers by WEEK for the 6 months ending February 5, 2012. Look at the surge since the new year began. If it continues, it will exert significant upward pressure on prices. Sales Price to List Price Percentage, Days on Market, Price Reductions & Expired Listings The market is divided into 3 groups: 1) those condos which are well priced, show well and are comprehensively marketed, which sell relatively quickly at very close to the asking price, 2) those condos that go through one or more price reductions, take much longer to sell, and close at significant discounts to the original list price, and 3) those that don't sell at all, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. Median Condo Sales Prices For most of the past 3 years, the median price of non-distress condos in the greater South of Market area of San Francisco has generally been oscillating between $625,000 and $700,000, while the median price for distress condos (bank-owned and short sales) has continued to decline. Median prices of condos of varied location, size, views and quality will naturally fluctuate up and down without being particularly meaningful as pertaining to changes in value -- until the trend is consistent over the long term, minimally 3 to 4 quarters. Note that values can fluctuate dramatically, by specific location and specific building, within the 4 neighborhoods covered by this analysis. Median Sales Price Trends for 2-Bedroom Condos in Selected SF Neighborhoods A comparison of median price trends for 2BR condos in 5 of the city's neighborhoods. Average Dollar per Square Foot The New-Development Condo Market The vast majority of new-condo construction over the past 15 years has been in this greater area. The 2008 financial crisis caused new condo construction to crash in SF, which has led to large declines in new-condo listings and sales. Even though new construction plans appear to be now recovering in a relatively big way, this large reduction in existing new-condo inventory has significant ramifications for the supply and demand dynamic, and is a major factor in the heating up of the resale market. Condos for Sale The inventory of condos listed for sale through MLS is far below that of previous years. Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) MSI has been bumping along in the range of 2 to 3.5 months of inventory since February, which is the lowest it has been here in years. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale. MSI readings this low -- especially below 3 months -- would typically be considered indicative of a strong "Seller's Market," i.e. not enough inventory to satisfy demand. Sales by Price Range The greatest number of condo sales in these neighborhoods is in the $500,000 to $600,000 price range, however large numbers sell for far less (often times, distress sales) and many sell for far more. Indeed, some of the most expensive condos in the city, usually with staggering views and selling at dollar per square foot figures of $1000 and more, are found here. One condo in this area sold for $28 million last year. Longer-Term Trends for South Beach & SoMa The two following charts track average sales price and average dollar per square foot for non-distress condo sales by year since 1995, specifically for the South Beach and SoMa neighborhoods. Remember that average sales price is different from median sales price (which is used more often), but is just another way to look at long-term market trends. Distress sales (bank and short sales) were excluded from this analysis to provide an apples to apples comparison over time. Condo Sales $1,000,000 & Above Distress Condo Listings & Sales in the Greater SoMa Area Because so many large developments were built here in the last 15 years, this area has more distress condo sales (bank-owned property sales and short sales) than any other area of the city. However, the number of distress listings and sales has been declining for the time being, and most of the distress condo sales are clustered generally in the lower price ranges (see median price chart above) and often in specific troubled buildings. ****************************** MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends. AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low. DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market. MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a "Seller's market", 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a "Buyer's market." DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home's interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks -- though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings. Median and average statistics are generalities subject to fluctuation due to a variety of reasons (besides changes in value): how they apply to any specific property is unknown. Averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when sample size is small. Sales not reported to MLS - such as many new-development condo sales -- are not included in this analysis (except in the specific chart on the SF new-development condo market). All figures should be considered approximate and are derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and not warranted. We are happy to provide or direct you to the original data upon which each chart is based.  SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | Neighborhood Values Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

SOMA Real Estate Market Update

	San Francisco Real Estate Trends for the South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Mission Bay & Yerba Buena Condo Market A Market Overview by the Paragon Real Estate Group More condos sell in the South of Market (SoMa)-South Beach-Yerba Buena-Mission Bay neighborhoods than anyplace else in the city. Of course, this is where by far the greatest number of new condos have been built since the 1990's. The market here has been heating up rapidly, especially as the number of brand new condos on the market has been rapidly declining. **************************************Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers This statistic is a good snapshot of supply and demand. The last 3 quarters have seen this percentage at or close to its highest point in 3 years, reflecting strong buyer demand vs. a limited supply of condos for sale. The percentage of listings accepting offers in the past quarter is very high when compared to the 3rd quarters of previous years (1st chart). Then with the beginning of 2012, demand just blasted off to another level (2nd chart). This chart tracks the percentage of listings accepting offers by WEEK for the 6 months ending February 5, 2012. Look at the surge since the new year began. If it continues, it will exert significant upward pressure on prices. Sales Price to List Price Percentage, Days on Market, Price Reductions & Expired Listings The market is divided into 3 groups: 1) those condos which are well priced, show well and are comprehensively marketed, which sell relatively quickly at very close to the asking price, 2) those condos that go through one or more price reductions, take much longer to sell, and close at significant discounts to the original list price, and 3) those that don't sell at all, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. Median Condo Sales Prices For most of the past 3 years, the median price of non-distress condos in the greater South of Market area of San Francisco has generally been oscillating between $625,000 and $700,000, while the median price for distress condos (bank-owned and short sales) has continued to decline. Median prices of condos of varied location, size, views and quality will naturally fluctuate up and down without being particularly meaningful as pertaining to changes in value -- until the trend is consistent over the long term, minimally 3 to 4 quarters. Note that values can fluctuate dramatically, by specific location and specific building, within the 4 neighborhoods covered by this analysis. Median Sales Price Trends for 2-Bedroom Condos in Selected SF Neighborhoods A comparison of median price trends for 2BR condos in 5 of the city's neighborhoods. Average Dollar per Square Foot The New-Development Condo Market The vast majority of new-condo construction over the past 15 years has been in this greater area. The 2008 financial crisis caused new condo construction to crash in SF, which has led to large declines in new-condo listings and sales. Even though new construction plans appear to be now recovering in a relatively big way, this large reduction in existing new-condo inventory has significant ramifications for the supply and demand dynamic, and is a major factor in the heating up of the resale market. Condos for Sale The inventory of condos listed for sale through MLS is far below that of previous years. Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) MSI has been bumping along in the range of 2 to 3.5 months of inventory since February, which is the lowest it has been here in years. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale. MSI readings this low -- especially below 3 months -- would typically be considered indicative of a strong "Seller's Market," i.e. not enough inventory to satisfy demand. Sales by Price Range The greatest number of condo sales in these neighborhoods is in the $500,000 to $600,000 price range, however large numbers sell for far less (often times, distress sales) and many sell for far more. Indeed, some of the most expensive condos in the city, usually with staggering views and selling at dollar per square foot figures of $1000 and more, are found here. One condo in this area sold for $28 million last year. Longer-Term Trends for South Beach & SoMa The two following charts track average sales price and average dollar per square foot for non-distress condo sales by year since 1995, specifically for the South Beach and SoMa neighborhoods. Remember that average sales price is different from median sales price (which is used more often), but is just another way to look at long-term market trends. Distress sales (bank and short sales) were excluded from this analysis to provide an apples to apples comparison over time. Condo Sales $1,000,000 & Above Distress Condo Listings & Sales in the Greater SoMa Area Because so many large developments were built here in the last 15 years, this area has more distress condo sales (bank-owned property sales and short sales) than any other area of the city. However, the number of distress listings and sales has been declining for the time being, and most of the distress condo sales are clustered generally in the lower price ranges (see median price chart above) and often in specific troubled buildings. ****************************** MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends. AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low. DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market. MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a "Seller's market", 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a "Buyer's market." DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home's interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks -- though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings. Median and average statistics are generalities subject to fluctuation due to a variety of reasons (besides changes in value): how they apply to any specific property is unknown. Averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when sample size is small. Sales not reported to MLS - such as many new-development condo sales -- are not included in this analysis (except in the specific chart on the SF new-development condo market). All figures should be considered approximate and are derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and not warranted. We are happy to provide or direct you to the original data upon which each chart is based. SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | Neighborhood Values Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

San Francisco Real Estate Sales in 2011 by Property Type

Looks like San Franciscans are grabbing up condos as much as houses these days.  43% of sold properties in 2011 were Single Family Homes while Condos came in a close second with 39%.

Largest Home Sales in San Francisco for 2011

Believe it or not, the second largest home sale in San Francisco for 2011 actually happened South of Market in the Yerba Buena district. Granted it was the penthouse unit at the St. Regis that sold for $28,000,000.  This was actually a bargain 20% off the original list price of $35,000,000

Food Truck Park Coming Soon to SOMA

Foodies in SOMA are in for a great treat.  Food trucks will be parking it in the new SOMA Street Food Park at 428 11th St and Division which breaks ground this week.  Adding to the already eclectic SOMA food choices, the Park will provide much needed space for the ever-growing number of food trucks popping up throughout San Francisco.

Instead of a permanent set of trucks, there will be a rotating bevy of up to 9 trucks that can accomodate up to 200 folks.  SOMA workers in the area will be happy to have an even greater variety of food choices, and there are even rumors of a beer truck, to ease the work day a tad.

I don't know about you but my mouth is already watering.  Yummy.

Beautifully Updated Studio in Lower Pacific Heights

Schedule a Showing/Request Info Search For Homes in Lower Pacific Heights San Francisco Homes For Sale Homes Close to Where You Work What is your home worth? Short Sale Homes For Sale Simone Koga Showing Agent - Paragon Real Estate Group 415-706-1586 simone@simonekoga.com MLS#: 392552 Information valid for the date of this posting only. Please contact us for the most current information and status of this property.

1730 Broderick Street #12 San Francisco, CA Scan with your smartphone & take me with you. Description Features Photos Maps & Local Schools Virtual Tour ***)))Beautifully Updated Studio in Charming neighborhood(((*** $ Click for current price 1 BATHROOMS (1 full) Sunny top-floor studio in beautiful Edwardian building is waiting for you!!!  Enjoy a custom-built sleeping alcove, hardwood floors, skylights, large storage space and classic architectural details.   Only steps to Laurel Village shops and restaurants as well as easy transportation. Listing Provided by Kristina Hansen and James Haywood- Paragon Real Estate Group L2L Property Websites WP